Asymmetries in knowledge creation.

 

Knowledge creation in frontier technologies has been gathering pace, with a rapid rise in research publications and patents. Over the period 2000–2023, for AI alone, more than 713,000 peer-reviewed scientific articles were published and 338,000 patents were filed, with a sharp increase since 2020. Other industry 4.0 technologies, such as IoT, robotics and big data, also generated a large number of publications and patents. Among green technologies, knowledge creation was more significant in biogas and biomass (274,000 patents) and in electric vehicles (243,000 patents) (figure I.6). 

As with R&D investments, knowledge creation in frontier technologies is dominated by China and the United States, which together are responsible for around one third of global peer-reviewed articles and two thirds of patents. These countries are more dominant in patents than scientific articles. Different countries often specialize in particular fields. This is evident in the revealed technology advantage of a country, that is defined as its share of patents in a particular technology field divided by its share in all fields (table I.1). A value above 1 indicates specialization. For example, Germany is highly specialized in wind energy, India in nanotechnology, Japan in electric vehicles, and the Republic of Korea in 5G technology. Certain countries or regions may become global hubs for particular types of knowledge, attracting investment and talent, and giving them an edge in shaping the technological trajectory.

Market dominance, at both the corporate and national levels, risks widening global technological divides, making it even more difficult for latecomers to catch up, particularly when coupled with the slowdown in technology diffusion observed in recent decades. The growing complexity of technologies and innovations requires increasing investments in physical and human capital, to find new ideas, as well as greater adjustment and learning costs for effective implementation. In addition, modern technologies need to be integrated with multiple components within increasingly interconnected systems, further raising entry barriers and limiting technology and knowledge diffusion. The gap in productivity growth between firms at the global frontier and laggards is particularly marked in digital and skill-intensive industries. These challenges, along with structural barriers such as inadequate infrastructure and a lack of technical expertise, make it difficult for lagging firms and countries to keep pace with technological advances. The slowdown in technology diffusion also limits aggregate productivity growth. Technology development and innovation in developing countries can also be hindered by data and intellectual property policies in developed countries, with the risk of the diffusion of AI technology further widening existing gap