AI at the technology frontier.

 

Frontier technologies are advancing rapidly, with a market size projected to grow sixfold by 2033, to $16.4 trillion. Market power, research and development (R&D) investment, knowledge creation and the development and deployment of AI technologies are dominated by technology giants from developed countries. Only 100 companies account for over 40 per cent of the world’s business investment in R&D. China and the United States of America dominate knowledge generation in frontiertechnologies, with around one third of peer-reviewed articles and two thirds of patents. Similarly, there is a significant AI-related divide between developed and developingcountries. This could widen existing inequalities and hinder efforts by developing countries to catch up. As a general-purpose technology, AI can enhance other technologies and enable effective human-machine collaboration. The use of AI offers significant opportunities for businesses and countries to grow and to progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, it also presents various risks and ethical concerns. Decision makers need to know more about AI if they are to navigate its promises and perils, for sustainable and inclusive development.

Key policy takeaways

Leading technology companies are gaining control over the technology’s future, and their commercial motives do not always align with the public interest. Governments need to explore policies and regulations that can incentivize and guide technological development along a path that promotes inclusivity and benefits everyone. 

Frontier technologies are capital intensive and could be labour-saving. In many developing countries, this could erode the comparative advantage of low labour costs, putting at risk the gains of recent decades. When properly directed, AI could help reverse this trend by augmenting rather than substituting for human capabilities. 

The rapid progress of AI involves three key leverage points that could trigger transformational cascades: infrastructure, data and skills. These provide a framework to assess a country’s preparedness for AI, develop effective industrial and innovation policies and strengthen global AI governance and collaboration.